Rain in Gheisra - day 1

pattern 1

you chose omen ... you are wrong

this was actually generated completely randomly

Why did you think it was an omen?
(i) Some tiles have few rain drops on them, others have many. You may have thought this meant it was not random. In fact, this is exactly what you expect to see of random phenomena. Random things are rarely uniformly spread except when there are very large numbers of independent things.
(ii) There are some apparent patterns alignments, clumps etc. This probably arose purely by chance. Our eyes are very good at picking out patterns, even random ones! However, it is possible that some of these are due to the random generator being used not being 100% random. All random number generators have some element of systematic behaviour, and you have to be careful when using them for statistical simulations.

back to: the story | day 1 | day 2 | day 3 | statistics tutorial

tutorial outline

tutorial notes

7 common errors

book list

rainfall in Gheisra

two-horse races

more coin tossing!

HyperCard demo

other tutorials by Alan

about the stats tutorial

links elsewhere



Alan Dix 5/8/98